This blog post examines various perspectives on whether global warming is a crisis caused by human activity or part of natural climate change.
According to the dictionary definition, global warming refers to the phenomenon of the average temperature on the surface of the earth rising. Although the phenomenon of global warming has been observed several times since the birth of the earth, the global warming that the world is currently paying attention to refers to the rapid rise in average temperature that began in the late 19th century. Many people point to the use of fossil fuels as the main cause of this rapid rise in temperature, and cite the fact that the use of fossil fuels such as oil and coal since the Industrial Revolution has increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as evidence. According to a survey by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the global average temperature has risen by about 0.6°C since the late 19th century compared to today. This temperature rise is causing rapid changes in natural ecosystems, including land and oceans, which is leading to environmental problems such as changes in the habitats of various plants and animals and the extinction of many species. In addition, the melting of glaciers and rising sea levels are causing the coastline to change, and islands such as the Maldives are at risk of being submerged, which is prompting a sense of alarm. Many organizations and experts argue that the warming that occurred until the first half of the 19th century was only a natural cycle, but that since the second half of the 19th century, human activity has caused warming, and they are calling for measures to be taken against it.
However, Fred Singer and Dennis Avery, authors of “Unstoppable Global Warming,” refute these claims head-on. The authors of this book point out that the negative phenomena caused by global warming are actually exaggerated and have been observed before. They argue that the global warming the world is currently facing is a cyclical phenomenon like before and is completely natural.
The basis for their claims is as follows. First, the authors argue that sea level rise is not a phenomenon that is occurring. Many experts say that sea level will rise due to global warming, causing islands to be submerged and many disasters to occur, but when checking satellite observation data, they explain that sea level rise due to global warming is much less than the figures given by environmental organizations such as the IPCC and the EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency). The IPCC and EPA data can be derived by considering only the amount of glacial melt when the average temperature of the Earth rises, but as glaciers melt, the amount of water evaporation in the atmosphere increases, resulting in more clouds, which in turn leads to the creation of new glaciers and permafrost. Ultimately, by scientifically proving that the volume of glaciers is maintained to a certain extent by the circulation of seawater, the authors emphasize that they did not select only data of a certain trend. The authors also refute the claims of experts by using the example of the sinking Tuvalu region. Experts claim that Tuvalu is sinking due to rising sea levels, but in fact, satellite observations have confirmed that it is the result of subsidence, not rising sea levels.
The authors also refute the possibility of a rapid cooling of the Earth. Many people believe that global warming increases the average temperature of the Earth, but they argue that this is not the case. Rather, they explain that as global warming accelerates, heat transfer through ocean circulation becomes more difficult, causing temperatures in the tropics to continue to rise and temperatures in the polar regions to fall. Experts predict that this change will eventually return most of the world to the climate of the ice age, which will lead to disasters such as a catastrophic drop in agriculture and a massive population decline. They argue that this process will occur rapidly, considering that the previous record of a drop of 27 degrees Fahrenheit in a few years. However, according to the authors, the flow of ocean currents has increased regularly during the recent warming period. This means that there is no problem with the thermal circulation of ocean currents, and when simulations based on this fact were run to predict future outcomes, it was found that the above-mentioned event was unlikely to occur. According to the results of the Hadley Centre’s simulation study, the future ocean current thermal circulation showed a tendency to increase rather than decrease. Therefore, there will be no drastic climate change due to global warming or dramatic changes such as an average temperature rise of 10 degrees within 10 years. The authors point out that the claims of experts are just a means of raising research funds.
Finally, the authors also mentioned the abnormal weather we are currently experiencing. Every summer, we experience squalls and frequent showers that are only seen in tropical climates. Abnormal weather events such as squalls and hurricanes are occurring all over the world. Experts claim that these phenomena are the result of global warming, but the authors argue that what we call “abnormal weather” is actually just a repetition of what has always happened historically. In other words, the cycle of abnormal weather phenomena is intertwined with the cycle of warming, and since climate phenomena are caused by regional differences in sunlight over time and season, they are inevitably related to warming. Since there are records of such phenomena occurring in the past, experts say that the claim that abnormal weather is caused by global warming is not valid.
The authors argue that the phenomena currently believed to be caused by global warming and those that are likely to occur are not caused by global warming or are not actually occurring. The authors’ argument is not to deny global warming itself, but to deny the serious situations that will occur due to global warming. The authors argue that they have provided sufficient evidence to refute the claim that some of these situations are related to global warming. However, the book does not clearly state that global warming itself is not occurring, and the statistical data is insufficient and needs to be supplemented. Therefore, I agree with the author’s argument and would like to supplement the shortcomings to further strengthen the author’s argument.
I learned that there are many experts who share the same views as the author and have also been claiming that global warming is a myth. Experts are urging alternatives to global warming as a political means to prevent the use of carbon dioxide and fossil fuels. There are counterexamples to the data presented by organizations and experts who claim that global warming is serious. Institutions and experts claim that the Earth’s average annual temperature is rising, causing winters to be shorter, with ice freezing 5.8 days later and melting 6.5 days earlier. Accordingly, they point out that the snow cover area in the northern hemisphere has been decreasing by 5% per year since 1966, the Arctic ice in summer has decreased by 7.4% compared to 10 years ago, and the area of Arctic sea ice has decreased by 2.7%, emphasizing the fact that the glaciers are continuing to melt. However, such data is only biased towards certain claims. According to other data, the average temperature in Greenland has actually fallen since 1937, and the surrounding glaciers of Antarctica are spreading cold. In addition, the global average temperature dropped by 0.008°C between 1987 and 1998. Contrary to the claim that some species in the polar regions are facing extinction due to the melting of glaciers and the disappearance of their habitats, data shows that the polar bear population has increased fivefold compared to 1975. According to an article by Fox News, which supports this, the ice in the Arctic Ocean increased by 60% in 2013 compared to the previous year. In addition, Fyfe et al. (2013) pointed out that the warming trend has slowed down considerably to the extent that it can be said to be a cyclical phenomenon.
Considering these facts, it can be seen that the basis for the current claims of global warming is biased. When the data is analyzed comprehensively, no clear phenomenon of global warming is observed. The column even states that the increase in greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide due to the use of fossil fuels is also a false claim. Carbon dioxide is only 0.00127% of the Earth’s atmosphere, so it does not affect the greenhouse effect. A study by Craig D. Idso et al. (2013) also supports this claim, revealing no correlation between temperature changes over the past 150 years and carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. The author of the column interprets the reason for claiming that global warming is not actually happening as a political intention. The author also says that, like the authors of the book, the scientists who claim that global warming is occurring are only doing so to receive research funding.
As mentioned earlier, the evidence that global warming is actually occurring is unclear. All climate data can be interpreted either in a way that supports global warming or in a way that does not. In this regard, there are also people who look at the global warming debate from a neutral perspective. Those who take a neutral stance argue that the global warming debate is fundamentally related to scientific uncertainty. In 2004, climatologist Oreskes published an article in Science to prove that global warming is a phenomenon that clearly exists, and this led to a consensus among many climatologists. This led to the general public becoming interested in the issue of global warming, and the debate began in earnest. However, as mentioned above, some of the data does not prove global warming, and it has been revealed that some experts have used biased data. In 2009, the global warming debate resurfaced after an email was revealed in which IPCC climatologists had manipulated and interpreted data with extreme bias. Ultimately, the global warming debate was caused by collusion among some experts who excluded scientific uncertainties. In fact, claims and judgments about global warming can only be made through global statistics and scientific analysis. From this perspective, the claim that global warming is not occurring can be based on the lack of validity of the data that shows that global warming is occurring.
In conclusion, experts say that global warming is not as serious as we perceive it to be. The data that experts use to claim that global warming is occurring is biased, and the phenomena that are claimed to be caused by global warming are either extremely natural phenomena or phenomena that do not occur. We are currently in the process of cyclical climate change on Earth, and we are just living in a period of warming.
